On May 3, PMI Mortgage Insurance Co., a provider of residential mortgage insurance, released its second quarter U.S. Market Risk Index.
The Index uses economic data–home price appreciation, employment, affordability, excess housing supply, interest rates and foreclosures—to determine the risk of price declines in the nation’s MSAs (metropolitan areas). These risk scores indicate the probability whether home prices in a given MSA will be lower at the end of the next two years.
According to PMI, the Index shows fresh evidence of a greater probability of a recovering national housing market—and the likely prospect of higher housing prices in many markets in two years.
Key findings include:
• Of the nation’s 384 MSAs, 356 had a declining Risk Score, meaning the projected risk of prices falling is reduced.
• The number of MSAs with a Risk Score of less than 50–suggesting better than even odds of higher housing prices in certain markets in two years–increased 26.5%.
• The 10 most improved MSAs (where the risk of price declines is now lower) are Columbus, Ohio; Pittsburgh, Pa.; Memphis, Tenn.; Charlotte, N.C.; St. Louis, Mo.; San Antonio, Texas; Kansas City, Mo.; Nashville, Tenn.; Chicago-Naperville, Ill.; and Indianapolis, Ind.
• The 10 least improved MSAs (where future price declines are expected) are Phoenix-Scottsdale, Ariz.; Santa Ana-Irvine, Calif.; Orlando-Kissimmee, Fla.; Jacksonville, Fla.; Los Angeles-Long Beach, Calif.; Tampa-St. Petersburg, Fla.; Riverside-San Bernardino, Calif.; Las Vegas, Nev.; Fort Lauderdale, Fla.; and Miami-Miami Beach, Fla.
If you’re considering buying a home in one of the most-improved MSAs, now is a good time to act, as prices may be on the upswing, according to the Index.
To learn more about the PMI Index and prices in the Sacramento area, give me a call today.