Tag Archives: housing

A Housing Bubble? Industry Experts Say NO!

A Housing Bubble? Industry Experts Say NO! | MyKCM

With residential home prices continuing to appreciate at levels above historic norms, some are questioning if we are heading toward another housing bubble (and subsequent burst) like the one we experienced in 2006-2008.

Recently, five housing experts weighed in on the question.

Rick Sharga, Executive VP at Ten-X:

“We’re definitely not in a bubble.”

“We have a handful of markets that are frothy and probably have hit an affordability wall of sorts but…while prices nominally have surpassed the 2006 peak, we’re not talking about 2006 dollars.”

Christopher Thornberg, Partner at Beacon Economics:

“There is no direct or indirect sign of any kind of bubble.”

“Steady as she goes. Prices continue to rise. Sales roughly flat.…Overall this market is in an almost boring place.”

Bill McBride, Calculated Risk:

“I wouldn’t call house prices a bubble.”

“So prices may be a little overvalued, but there is little speculation and I don’t expect house prices to decline nationally like during the bust.”

David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee atS&P Dow Jones Indices:

“Housing is not repeating the bubble period of 2000-2006.”

“…price increases vary unlike the earlier period when rising prices were almost universal; the number of homes sold annually is 20% less today than in the earlier period and the months’ supply is declining, not surging.”

Bing Bai & Edward Golding, Urban Institute:

“We are not in a bubble and nowhere near the situation preceding the 2008 housing crisis.”

“Despite recent increases, house prices remain affordable by historical standards, suggesting that home prices are tracking a broader economic expansion.”

Housing Inventory Disappearing

Inventory-STM

The price of any item is determined by the supply of that item, and the market demand. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) recently released their latest Existing Home Sales Report which gives insight into today’s market conditions.

Inventory Levels & Demand

Sales of existing homes rose 5.1% month-over-month in March and are 1.5% higher than this time last year. Sales rose in all four major regions in March.

Total unsold housing inventory is 1.5% lower than March 2015 at a 4.5-month supply and remains well below the six months that is needed for a historically normal market.

Consumer confidence is at the highest level in over a decade. Pair that with interest rates still below 4%, programs available for down payments as low as 3%, and you have an attractive market for buyers.

Homes sold in March were on the market for an average of 47 days and 42% of properties sold in less than a month.

Prices Rising

March marked the 49th consecutive month of year-over-year price gains as the median price of existing homes sold rose to $210,700 (up 5.7% from 2015).

So What Does This Mean?

The chart below shows the impact that inventory levels have on home prices.

Housing Inventory Disappearing | Simplifying The Market

 

NAR’s Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun gave some insight into the correlation:

“Buyer demand remains sturdy in most areas this spring and the mid-priced market is doing quite well. However, sales are softer both at the very low and very high ends of the market because of supply limitations and affordability pressures.”

Bottom Line

If you are debating putting your home on the market in 2016, now may be the time. The number of buyers ready and willing to make a purchase is at the highest level in years. Let’s meet up so we can get the process started.

Sales Activity Increases, Inventory Drops for Holidays

(Sacramento Association of REALTORS® – RESIDENTIAL RESALE STATISTICS Dec. 2015)

Housing Stat Image

Sales volume for December surged 30.4% to 1,571, a substantial increase from the 1,205 closed escrows in November. The current number is 3.3% above the 1,520 sales of October. Compared with December 2014 (1,313 sales), the current number is up 19.6%. Equity sales made up 90.9% of all sales (1,428 units) for the month. The remainder of sales were REO/bank‐owned (57 units/3.6%) and Short Sales (60/3.8%). Other types of sales (auction, probate, etc.) accounted for 1.7% or 26 sales. Both REO Sales (2.7%) and Short Sales (17.3%) decreased for the month. Equity Sales increased slightly, up .4%.

Breaking down the financing, 225 sales used cash (14.3%), 750 (47.7%) conventional (mortgage‐backed), 415 (26.4%) used FHA (Federal Housing Administration), 103 (5.6%) used VA (Veterans Affairs) and 78 (5%) used Other* types of financing. The graph below compares market inventory and sales volume since May 2010:

Pending sales dropped off to 849, a 31.4% decrease from the 1,237 pending sales in November. Compared with December 2014, however, the current number is up 4.7% (811). The month‐to‐month median sales price jumped 2.1% from $290,885 to $297,000. This figure is 10.8% above the $268,000 median sales price for December 2014. The total dollar value of all closed transactions for the month totaled $508,723,362. This figure is 30.3% higher than the $390,353,522 total last month and 31.7% higher than the total value of December 2014 ($386,253,993). The year‐end sales total is 17,578, up 11.4% from the 15,778 sales at the same time of last year.

The total Active Listing Inventory decreased 18% from 2,150 to 1,749 and the Months of Inventory remained decreased from 1.8 months to 1.1 months. Year‐to‐year, the current number is down 27.9% (3,002 units).

The average DOM (days on market) for homes sold this month increased from 33 to 35 days. The median DOM increased 31% from 16 to 21. These numbers represent the days between the initial listing of the home as “active” and the day it goes “pending.” Breaking down the DOM, there were 964 listings that sold between 1 – 30 days, 329 listings between 31 – 60 days, 136 between 61 – 90 days, 68 between 91 – 120 days and 74 sales that spent over 120+ DOM.

Inventory V Sales SAR DEC 2015

 

The Sacramento Association of REALTORS® is a professional association representing over 5,500 real estate professionals and commercial affiliates doing business in the greater Sacramento metropolitan area. All SAR statistics reports compiled by Tony Vicari, SAR Communications Manager.

Statistics are derived from the MetroList® MLS database for Sacramento County and the City of West Sacramento.

JUST LISTED: 3 Bed 2 Ba in Elk Grove, CA

**JUST LISTED**

8737  Springhouse Way,  Elk Grove: Located in the beautiful Seasons community, this lovely 3 bed 2 bath home is ready for your buyer. Near new hickory laminate flooring throughout, high cascading ceilings, wildly popular open floor plan, and for the cook in the family, you’ll thoroughly enjoy the large counter and cooking spaces for those gourmet meals! So much to see, near great schools, close to fine dining, entertainment, highways, and more.

3 bed,2 ba
1,667 sq ft
Listed at: $277,000

Contact Nick Lacy for showings and more info:
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(916) 509-7110 office

Why Does A Seller Need to Know How I’m Financing My Purchase: What’s the Best Financing Method?

Puzzled LookAs a buyer, have you wondered why is what type of financing you use important? Or why does the seller need to know how you are financing your purchase? Or both?

The type of financing you use is important because, as a seller, you have the right to know how someone plans to purchase your property as well as to see evidence of that person’s ability to purchase. In addition, certain types of financing may not be accepted.

As a seller, you can choose what financing terms you will accept or will not accept. Most sellers are, of course, open to as many financing types as possible. However, in rare instances, specific financing types are sometimes prerequisites to being able to make an offer to purchase. For example, pending HOA litigation in a condo development would trigger this prerequisite. The HOA company will only allow sellers to accept owner occupied buyers with all cash offers or conventional financing.

Additionally, financing has its strengths and weaknesses. A general rule is outlined below recognizing there are always exceptions, and the seller has the final say.

STRONGEST
Cash
Conventional Loan
FHA Loan
FHA with DPA (Down Payment Assistance)
VA Loan
WEAKEST

As you can see, cash is at the top of the list – it is still and will always be king. The VA loan is at the bottom of the list and it is bitter sweet.

Nicknamed the “No-No Loan” the VA loan is structured to be a great tool and benefit to allow our vets to become homeowners. No down payment, no closing costs. The VA buyer isn’t even allowed to pay certain costs associated with closing the loan. Sounds great in theory, however, those costs get passed on most times to the seller who gets to say yes or no to paying them. In a competitive market, this offer gets placed on the bottom of the pile because the seller is netting the least from these offers.

The other loans in between have varying resemblances to the VA loan because they require the seller to give up potential proceeds to make the loan happen for the buyer.

Ultimately, the more cash the buyer puts in, the more of the risk they are taking. The less cash the buyer puts in, the less risk. To a seller, the seller would rather see more risk to ensure your commitment and to increase the possibility of closing.

The above is offered as a guideline and is not set in stone as to what will always happen. There are many other ways your broker/agent can ensure you are making a strong offer no matter what your financing. In all that you do as a buyer, choosing a savvy broker/agent will ensure you are making the strongest offer for your money and budget.

The Impact of Rising Prices on Home Appraisals

The Impact of Rising Prices on Home Appraisals | Keeping Current Matters

The fact that residential home prices are increasing substantially in most regions of the country is music to the ears of homeowners. However, if you are in the process of selling your home, make sure you realize the major challenge a hot real estate market creates.

Each house must be sold twice; once to a buyer and a second time to an appraiser who represents the bank that will grant the purchaser a mortgage to buy the home (unless it is an “all cash” purchase). In a real market with escalating prices, the second sale may be the more difficult. And a recent survey by Quicken Loans reveals that the gap between what a homeowner believes is the value of their home compared to an appraiser is widening.

Appraisal vs. Homeowner Value | Keeping Current Matters

This could lead to an increase in the percentage of real estate transactions being challenged by a ‘short’ appraisal (where the appraiser value is less than the contracted price of the home).

Bottom Line

Whether you are a buyer or a seller, you must be prepared for this possibility as it may result in a renegotiation of the price of the home.

First-Time Homebuyers Led the Way in May

First-Time Homebuyers Lead the Way in May | Keeping Current Matters

The National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) latest Existing Home Sales Report revealed that first time homebuyers made up 32% of all sales in the month of May; marking the highest share since September 2012 and up from 27% the same time last year. NAR’s Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun, cited “strong job gains among young adults, less expensive mortgage insurance and lenders offering low down payment programs,” as contributing factors to the increase in first-time buyers. Existing-home sales rose 5.1% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.35 million. Total housing inventory for sale remains under the 6.0 months needed for a historically normal market at a 5.1 month supply. Homes sold quickly in May, as 45% of homes sold in less than a month. May also marked the 39th consecutive month of year-over-year price gains as the median existing home price rose 7.9% above May 2014 to $228,700. Below is a chart showing the breakdown of price increases by region:

Existing Home Prices by Region | Keeping Current Matters
Yun went on to say,

“Solid sales gains were seen throughout the country in May as more homeowners listed their home for sale and therefore provided greater choices for buyers.” “However, overall supply still remains tight, homes are selling fast and price growth in many markets continues to teeter at or near double-digit appreciation. Without solid gains in new home construction, prices will likely stay elevated — even with higher mortgage rates above 4 percent.”

Bottom Line

“More first-time buyers are expected to enter the market in coming months, but the overall share climbing higher will depend on how fast rates and prices rise.” If you are a homeowner considering a move this year, meet with a local real estate agent who can show you the opportunities available right now! Don’t miss out on the influx of new buyers entering the market every day.

The "Kee" To Your Next Home!

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